The first question an average Israeli asks concerning the results of any elections anywhere in the world, including Germany, is: Which candidate is "good for the Jews"? What the average Israeli, the average Israeli politician and average Israeli media person really means is: Will the new man (or woman) go along with Israeli politics, i.e. with the right-wing politics which characterize Israel since 1977 or even 1967? Since Angela Merkel's statement about the existence of Israel being a component of the German "Staatsraison" the average Israeli does no effort even to gather information about Merkel's political adversaries – he is automatically in favor of Merkel and hopes for her re-election. I was asked many times before September 22 about Merkel's chances, and my definitive answer that the polls expect even a rise in the power of Merkel's CDU-CSU party was accepted as good news.
Now that the results are (though not definitely) known, we can at least be sure that at least one relevant change will occur: Guido Westerwelle is not going to be the foreign minister. Will the next Foreign minister be more critical of the Israeli policy toward the Palestinians, towards its neighbors or towards Iran? Will Angela Merkel react more openly to Netanyahu's double talk and to his maneuvers? If they do this does not necessarily mean that they are not "good for the Jews" anymore, because after all the real interest of the Jews, i.e. of Israel, is not "greater Israel" but peace in the region. Germany's support of a dialog between Obama and Putin concerning Syria is in this respect "good for the Jews", much more constructive than supporting a military action initiated by the US.
But for Israelis watching the elections in Germany there are also other relevant topics they should pay attention to. It has become obvious in the last years (actually in the post-Sharon years) that the Israeli party system does not allow bold moves because no large parties exist anymore. Even the biggest party, the Likud, has less than 20% of the seats in Parliament and can hardly do more than blockade constructive moves. This dwindling of the large parties was also a problem in Germany and therefore the German example becomes relevant to Israeli politics.
Let's begin with the obvious: Angela Merkel and the CDU party (actually the combination of the CDU and CSU) won the elections. She got ca. 42% of the general vote, 8% more voters compared to the elections four years ago.
The relevant concept by which this success should be measured, a concept that Angela Merkel used in her speech right after the results became known, is Volkspartei. In German only a Volkspartei, i.e. a party that represents all sections of society, has a chance to become the ruling party, as opposed to sectorial parties, parties that represent only one class, one religious group, one minority etc. The CDU was from the start – i.e. since 1949 - a Volkspartei, while the SPD became the other, after it decided in 1959 to give up its old character as representing only the working class and pursuing Marxist politics. In 2009 the status of both the CDU (34%) and especially the SPD (23%) as Volksparteien was seriously shaken. But today the CDU equaled the results it used to get between the 50ies and the 90es of the last century, more than 40%. So Merkel's Party is again a real Volkspartei in the original German sense. The SPD lags behind. 26% do not amount to the outcome needed to be a real Volkspartei. This is the most significant outcome of the present elections and a relevant lesson for the Israeli observer.
Merkel's success, and to a certain extent also the relative recovery of the SPD, came at the expense of the sectorial parties. The Green party, which concentrates on environmental policies and the Leftist party (Linke) that essentially represents the citizens of that part of united Germany that belonged to the DDR (East Germany) before 1990, lost 2-3% of their voters. But it was the liberal party (FDP), nicknamed "The party of the well-off people", that lost most heavily: From a high of 15% in 2009 they went down under 5%, which means that they were thrown out of the new Bundestag!
Another party with a narrow scope, the new "German alternative", did not succeed in getting into the Bundestag. Its anti-Euro and anti-European slogans attracted the votes of only 4.8%. This 5% hurdle again, which rendered so many attempts to get into the Bundestag futile in the past. Israel discusses now the 4% minimum. Maybe it should start discussing the magic 5% limit. But there is more to it: The impression created in Israel all through the Euro crisis was that the Euro is crumbling down and that the Germans are convinced that they made a mistake when they opted for the Euro instead of their D-Mark. The election demonstrate quite clearly that only a small minority in Germany does not grasp the advantages of the Euro for Germany
As these comments are being written down the end-results are not yet known, and discussing the new coalition will be mere speculation. With four parties in the Bundestag there are theoretically four possible combinations, one even without Merkel. But since the German political system is a responsible one four more years with Angie as Kanzlerin is the only realistic prognosis. Israelis who are used to a greater number of parties and paradox coalitions may watch with envy the process of creating a new government in Germany.