The dictator may have been overthrown, but we are still far from putting paid to the military regime. At the moment it appears quite likely that the Egyptian generals will keep their promise and pave the way to free and fair elections. The Arab world is enthusiastic about this prospect, as is the West. Only in Israel has scepticism prevailed so far.
Egypt's eastern neighbour fears that freedom in the land of the Nile could be short lived, serving only those Islamists who, as soon as they are in power, would put an end to democracy yet again – and turn Israel's most important partner in the region into one of its greatest threats. What should friends of Israel do in this situation? We should not allow the ugly face of Islamism to scare us – we are currently witnessing the first post Islamic uprisings of the Arab world. They call for freedom, democracy and dignity. Even for Israel it can only mean: in case of doubt, freedom shall prevail.
History has taught us that democracies do not wage war on each other. This 'democratic peace theory' is firmly corroborated in political sciences. Israel, which has for a long time been the region's only democratic state, should therefore be more interested than any other country in having democratic neighbours. US President Barack Obama is right when he says that 'democracy will bring more – not less – stability to the region'.
Furthermore, images of Tahrir Square have shown that the revolution is secular, with neither American nor Israeli flags being burned or stamped on. The crowds of people bore few religious symbols. Public prayers were peaceful and dignified, and worshippers stood alongside thousands of secular protestors. No one can predict how much support there would be in free elections for the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been banned until now. It is clear, however, that the revolutionaries in Egypt were not inspired by Muslim promises but rather by the example of democratic change in Tunisia.
Those predicting a violent confrontation with Israel should not forget that this revolution has thus far been peaceful – the only violence that flared up briefly was provoked by Mubarak's few henchmen. As friends of Israel we should therefore be careful about discussing the radicalisation of Egyptians in order to avoid it becoming a self fulfilling prophecy. Their behaviour up to now has not led us to do so – that should be worth more than vague and unfounded prejudices about 'Arab exceptionalism'.
The best way to avoid any future radicalisation is to help democratic transformation to success. Should the newly acquired freedom be taken away again by a new, secular regime – with the explicit or implicit support of the secular West, including Israel – Egyptians will look for other outlets for their discontent. If the democratic revolution fails, there is a risk that people will seek salvation in an Islamic revolution.
For Israel there is no going back to the security of the Mubarak regime (or that of a surrogate). An authoritarian ally who has lost all backing and credibility – both at home and in the international community – would be of no use at all. Rather than desperately clinging to the irretrievable certainties of the past, friends of Israel should focus their efforts on creating a positive future for the region and being on the right side of history.
Friends of Israel should therefore support the transition to democracy (which, on a side note, will also require a comprehensive socio economic element). After a long delay, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Catherine Ashton presented an ambitious vision in the Financial Times of 15 February 2011. Implementing this vision in a rapid and determined fashion is the best thing that Europe can offer Israel.