This piece does not attempt to give an unbiased view of the war that took place between Israel and Gaza this past summer. While I did spend the recent war in Tel Aviv, I am not an expert on Hamas. As such, in the next few paragraphs, I will try to provide a snapshot of the war from the perspective of a self-defined moderate, who voted in the last election for the Meretz party (the most left-wing of what are considered Zionist parties.)
The first thing that must be said about this summer's conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is that this was a war Israel did not want, nor did it expect. Endless arguments may be had on whether or not Israel could have avoided this war. Did Israel's crackdown on Hamas in the West Bank instigate the outbreak? What would have happened if Israel had accepted the unity government between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority? Future historians can argue over the answers to these questions. Truthfully, in the early days of the summer (before the war broke out,) no one in Israel believed that a war was in the offing. The conventional wisdom here maintained that Hamas was too weak to endanger its rule by going to war with Israel, and furthermore, that Hamas had little to gain – and much to lose – if it did so.
In those fateful days in early July when the war began – in what felt like slow-motion – the prevailing speculation was that after a few days of perfunctory firing, Hamas would agree to a ceasefire. However, the reality of the war was very different. The war that Israel did not expect lasted for most of the summer. Of course, the war was very asymmetric. As a result, the gulf between what Israelis felt and what outside observers thought happened this summer could not have been greater. To much of the world, the war as seen on their Televisions looked like Hamas firing primitive missiles at Israel, and Israel exhibiting its technological dominance shooting down those missiles (thereby causing little damage and almost no loss of life). Each Hamas attack was followed by Israeli retaliation. As Israel attacked Hamas targets, hundreds of innocent and defensive Gaza residents died. On a simple level, this was very true. Yet, to Israelis things were very different.
While large numbers of Israeli were not being killed by Hamas, there was an organization trying to kill them – all summer long. Israel's Iron Dome missile interception system operated miraculously. For those of us living in Tel Aviv, where the response time was longer (90 seconds), Iron Dome worked flawlessly. Though for the 2/3 of Israelis living within missile range of Gaza, there was no question that Hamas was trying their best to kill them. Spending the entire summer always worrying about how far you were from shelter has had an unknown psychological effect on Israelis – especially the young people. People often wonder why Israelis appear to have moved to the right politically these past years, (especially the youth). When you speak to younger Israelis, (those in their mid- 20s) you learn that they grew up during a time when a public bus could blow up at any time. The trauma of that period has never left them. I fear the terrible sound of alert sirens blaring, will cause a similar trauma on a new generation of Israelis.
It's too soon to fully analyze the impact of this war – especially since there are those who believe the war might resume. A few things are clear. In the short term, this war helped the extremes on both sides (as wars often do.) All polling indicates that in the immediate aftermath of the war Hamas gained political support among the Palestinians; and the right-wing parties gained electoral support in Israel. Will this short-term right wing support translate into long-term support? That is more questionable.
Regarding Hamas, as it becomes clear they accomplished nothing in this war, support for Hamas, (along with the view that only violence gets Israel to make concessions) may lose sway. Regarding the Israeli-side the effects of this war is complicated. During this war, many Israelis who identify with the left-wing were pushed to believe that we should have attacked even harder. Supporters of the left-wing came to several stark realizations over the course of this war. One person, who described herself as a lifetime leftist told me: "I realized now that they really want to kill me."
In reality, this war has left Israelis with two very contradictory data points. On one hand, the war has shown us that simply doing nothing is not an option – If no political solution is found, Israel cannot continue to live in a peaceful bubble. On the other hand, the quantity missiles and mortars fired at us from Gaza, (especially on residents in the South), combined with the tunnels Hamas built underscored for Israelis exactly what sort of risks would be involved if Israel was to pull out of additional lands. When Israel pulled out of Gaza, supporters of the retreat claimed that if we were ever attacked again from Gaza, Israel could go right back in and stop them. The fact that Hamas fired on Israel for 50 days and Israel did not reconquer Gaza (for whatever reason) has given even those who believe in withdrawing from the West Bank- pause. Where the Israeli left goes from here is a significant question. Where Israel will go is an even bigger question.